In this white paper, the available evidence on the travel and environmental effects of automated vehicles is critically reviewed to understand the potential magnitude and likelihood of estimated effects. We outline the mechanisms by which automated vehicles may change travel demand and review the available evidence on their significance and size. These mechanisms include increased roadway capacity, reduced travel time burden, change in monetary costs, parking and relocation travel, induced travel demand, new traveler groups, and energy effects. We then describe the results of scenario modeling studies. Scenarios commonly include fleets of personal automated vehicles and automated taxis with and without sharing. Travel and/or land use models are used to simulate the cumulative effects of scenarios. These models typically use travel activity data and detailed transportation networks to replicate current and predict future land use, traffic behavior, and/or vehicle activity in a real or hypothetical city or region.
The full report is available through the University of California, Davis web site at: https://ncst.ucdavis.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NCST_Rodier_Automated-Vehicles-White-Paper_APRIL-2018.pdf